Moscow, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

546
FXUS66 KOTX 232053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
153 PM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday. Wednesday will
  be our warmest day with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
  Cascades and northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and
  evening.

- Weather changes arrive late week with much cooler
  temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will persist through Wednesday with the
exception of shower and thunderstorms chances mainly over the
Cascades and northern mountains in the afternoon into Wednesday
night. The pattern shifts toward the end of the week and into
the weekend as a weather system delivers much cooler
temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers for much of the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A pair of very weak mid level waves will track into
the region tonight. One over the North Cascades will bring a 15
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening. There
is limited instability to work with so any storms that develop
are expected to be brief. A second mid level wave is progged by
the models to track quickly across SE Washington into the
southern ID Panhandle overnight. CAM`s models show the main
threat of elevated nocturnal showers or thunderstorms staying to
the south, but can not rule out some brief sprinkles with this
wave.

Wednesday into Thursday: A stronger mid level wave will track
over the Cascades Wednesday afternoon and evening during peak
heating hours. This will result in increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains and expand into the
Okanogan Highlands and northern mountains by Wednesday evening.
Yet with somewhat limited instability with CAPE of 300-600 J/KG
the coverage of storms are expected to remain isolated. Yet, a
dry sub cloud layer initially will support enhanced downdrafts
producing gusty outflow winds with several CAM`s models
showing 30-40 MPH gusts. With precipitable water values
increasing to 125-150 percent of normal brief downpours are also
expected with storms. Yet with dry fuels new fire starts are
possible, especially with any strikes that occur outside of the
rain cores. The remnants of this convection manifest into an
area of elevated moisture/instability that tracks across
Northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday Night
into Thursday morning. The instability has increased some with
the latest model guidance, although confidence remains too low
to include mention of nocturnal thunderstorms but something that
will continue to be monitored. Thursday afternoon a drier
southwest flow develops, although lingering moisture and
instability over the northern mountains will result in a 20
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. The southwest flow
ahead of a large upper trough will contribute to warm and breezy
winds on Thursday, with elevated fire weather conditions across
the Columbia Basin, Okanogan Valley, West Plains, and Palouse.

Friday through Monday: Confidence remains high of a significant
drop in temperatures as a large upper level trough drops into
the region from the Gulf of Alaska. In addition, precipitation
chances will be increasing over a multi-day period as the
influence of the trough lingers for several days. The initial
mid level front tracks across Friday morning with a 70-90
percent chance of rain showers over Eastern Washington, Cascade
crest, and ID Panhandle with a 20-40 percent chance of rain
showers in Central Washington. Over the weekend the large closed
low drops over the region. Here is where some model solutions
differ with the precise location of the low and how the coverage
of precipitation evolves. But at minimum there will be a chance
of showers each day, as well as 20 percent chance of thunderstorms
on Friday. This system will also bring in several days of breezy
winds to Central Washington, Palouse, and West Plains. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
throughout the TAF period. Light winds (less than 10 kts) will
prevail across the region with a few passing high clouds through
the day on Wednesday. An unstable atmosphere will lead to
moderate cumulus development over the northern mountains this
afternoon, with a 15% chance of thunderstorms between 23z-03z
over the North Cascades. Any storms that develop are not
expected to impact any of the regional airports.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period.
JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  90  56  86  53  69 /   0   0  20  10  10  80
Coeur d`Alene  57  89  59  85  55  66 /   0   0  20  10  10  90
Pullman        52  86  54  82  50  67 /   0   0   0  10  20  80
Lewiston       61  94  61  91  59  74 /   0   0   0  10  30  90
Colville       53  90  53  87  50  70 /   0  10  20  20  10  90
Sandpoint      56  87  56  84  52  64 /   0   0  20  20  10  90
Kellogg        55  86  56  83  53  64 /  10   0  10  10  10  90
Moses Lake     57  95  59  89  54  77 /   0   0  10   0  10  30
Wenatchee      65  92  64  86  60  74 /   0  10  20   0  30  50
Omak           61  93  59  89  57  76 /   0   0  20  10  10  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$